How do you value something that hasn’t traded hands in over a decade?
How do you value a ‘one-of-one’ baseball rookie card using similar sales of cards that are not ‘one-of-one?’
The Dmirti Young Collection of baseball rookie cards is truly amazing. Almost 500 cards featuring perfect condition GEM MINT PSA 10 examples of the greatest players to ever play the game.
And there’s only one card of each player, with each card marked with the iconic, ‘DMITRI YOUNG COLLECTION’ designation.
The Most Iconic Rookie Card Collection of All Time
So what you have is a single special edition “DYC” rookie card in perfect condition. Not only that, but each card is part of the greatest collection of baseball rookie cards to ever be assembled, spanning seven decades.
So my question to you is, what is the premium of a Dmitri Young Collection card, above and beyond a similar, but ‘normal’ PSA 10 card?
And my second question, what is the value of a “DYC” card if it’s the only PSA 10 in existence? And how would you value that card if the only sale that ever occurred was the original auction sale in May of 2012?
We’re going to break down the potential value of the top 100 Dmitri Young Collection cards, and attempt to calculate the present day value if a sale was to occur.
The Dmitri Young Collection
With 491 cards in the collection to analyze, where do we start?
We start with the original May 12th, 2012 auction sale price. That’s easy. Here’s the chart of every card, in order of the card year, beginning with the 1948 Bowman Stan Musial rookie.
[ninja_tables id=”44789″]Next, we look at the last sold value of the same card across all PSA 10s. Now we can narrow down the 491 cards to the top 100.
Here’s a look at the top 100 most valuable cards looking at the most recent sales across all PSA 10 grades of each particular card, sorted from highest to lowest sale price.
[ninja_tables id=”44803″]But once you start looking at the ‘last sold value’ of each card, there’s a few big problems. Some of the super-rare ‘Pop 1’ cards haven’t sold since the original May 12th, 2012 auction. At least, there’s no record of a sale, but I’m sure some have sold privately.
Here’s the chart of the Top 100 cards sorted with only cards that haven’t sold since the original auction.
[ninja_tables id=”44839″]So we have to calculate the expected appreciation of such a card by applying the “DYC” premium to the value. Then, we can sort the estimated values of the DYC Top 100 cards.
The Dmitri Young Collection Roberto Clemente Rookie
I can show you the math, and you can agree or disagree with my methodology.
The DYC Reggie Jackson rookie card sold at the original 2012 auction for $115,242. Nine years later in 2021, the same DYC card sold for $1,005,600. That’s an increase of 773% from the original auction sale price.
We can use this example to calculate the estimated value of the DYC Roberto Clemente rookie card because both the Reggie card and the Roberto card are ‘1 of 1’ PSA 10s. Both cards have a PSA 10 population of one and it’s the DYC card.
So let’s estimate the value of the Roberto Clemente DYC card using the Reggie Jackson DYC card as a comparable sale.
Roberto Clemente DYC original 2012 auction price = $432,690
$432,690 x 773% = $3,777,384
Using the 2021 Reggie Jackson sale price, we can estimate the Roberto Clemente DYC card to be valued at roughly $3.8 million.
Applying the % Gain to Other DYC Cards
Can we apply the 773% estimated increase in value from the Reggie card to other DYC cards besides the Clemente? I don’t think so.
The other premier rookie cards with six-figure original auction sale prices are not ‘Population 1’ cards. And the ‘Pop 1’ Pete Rose, Stan Musial, Al Kaline, and Rod Carew cards have re-sold since the 2012 auction.
The Hank Arron DYC
Next, we have to address the Hank Arron DYC card, which has a PSA 10 Population of two.
This card hasn’t re-sold since the original 2012 auction, but with a population of two and not just one like the Reggie and Roberto DYC cards, we can’t use the 773% increase.
So what increase is “fair” for the Pop two Hank Arron DYC card? Half of 773%? Since there are twice as many cards as the Reggie and Roberto?
Let’s try it.
Hank Arron original 2012 auction sale price = $357,594
$357,594 x 387% (773% divided by two) = $1,383,889
Using the 2021 Reggie DYC sale, we are applying half the increase since there are two PSA 10s and not just one. That gives an estimated value for the Hank Arron DYC card of $1,383,889.
What do you think? Is that penalizing the Hank Aaron DYC too much just because it’s a Pop 2 instead of a Pop 1? Or should the estimated increase be lower because it’s not a ‘Pop 1’?
Applying Comparable Sales to All DYC Cards
I’ve gone ahead and taken the liberty of applying my rough estimated values using similar comparable DYC sales.
Don’t forget, the Dmitri Young Collection cards are all “one-of-ones.” They are not “just another PSA 10.”
But the best-of-the-best DYC cards are the Population 1s across all PSA 10s. And there are only a few of those examples. But even DYC cards with high Pop. PSA 10s still should command a huge premium to non-DYC PSA 10 cards. Wouldn’t you agree?
So with much debate to follow, I’ve estimated the values on the Dmitri Young Collection cards, which gives me the most valuable 100 cards in the collection.
Here it is. Feel free to disagree, and let me know what methodology you would apply to certain cards.
The Dmitri Young Collection is the greatest ‘one-of-one’ rookie card collection ever assembled, and I’d love to hear different approaches to valuing such an amazing set of historic cards.
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